Update - June 7
Registration will open for all riders (regardless of pre-registration status) on June 11. With over 200 US quota spaces remaining, it seems likely that all riders interested will be able to get a place. Those riders who have not pre-registered might want to register early on, just in case, but I think we'll have spaces remaining throughout the registration process.
Update - May 17
At this point it seems extraordinarily unlikely that our quota will fill up during pre-registration.
We now have preregistrations from 65% of 1000km+ group (214 riders), 40% of the 600km group (167 riders), 19% of the 400km group (44 riders), and just 5% of the 300km group (14 riders). There are 280 spaces still available.
Update - May 3
The pace of pre-registration has slowed, increasing further the likelihood
that riders who did not ride brevets in 2010 will have the opportunity to participate in PBP 2011.
We now have preregistrations from 65% of 1000km+ group (212 riders), 40% of the 600km group (166 riders), and just 15% of the 400km group (35 riders).
The signup pattern for the 600km group had most of the riders (all but about 10) signing up after the first Tuesday of preregistration.
If that holds for the 400km group, we may max out at 20-25% of that group preregistering.
Even if 25% of the 400km, the 300km, and the 200km group all preregister, there will still be nearly a hundred places left for US riders at the conclusion of preregistration.
Thoughts as of April 20th:
Working on the US PBP pre-registrations, I'm getting more optimistic that riders who did not ride brevets in 2010 will have the opportunity to participate in PBP 2011.
Our US quota is 719.
RUSA had 328 riders who did 1000km or longer brevets in 2010. So far 64% of those have preregistered for PBP (210 riders).
RUSA had 418 riders whose longest brevet was 600km in 2010. So far 157 have signed up.
Speculation zone ahead:
If the signup pattern for the 600k group matches that of the first group, I'd expect to see about 185 riders (45%) sign up from this group.
Of the 238 riders whose longest brevet was 400km in 2010, I'm guessing that 40% (95 riders) will preregister.
Of the 277 riders whose longest brevet was 300km in 2010, I'm guessing that 30% (83 riders) will preregister.
Of the 488 riders whose longest brevet was 200km in 2010, I'm guessing that 20% (97 riders) will preregister.
Thats a total of 670 preregistering riders, leaving nearly 50 slots for US riders who didn't do any brevets in 2010.
I'll try to update this again in two weeks after the first few days of preregistration for the 400k group.